Is this a good time to buy a house?
You might be thinking about the wrong things.
In this article:
- The right time to buy depends on your situation, not economic trends.
- Make sure you鈥檙e financially ready, including having other critical goals already covered.
- Think about the reasons you want to buy and your plans 鈥 are you committed?
- If you decide to buy, consider our three recommendations to help protect yourself.
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More than 85% of Americans recently agreed that it鈥檚 not a great time to buy a home. And that mentality is showing up in sluggish home sales, as a combo of high prices and interest rates keeps people frozen in place.
But what does that mean for you? Not a whole lot. If you don鈥檛 need to move right now or care much when you eventually do, then sure 鈥 you might want to wait for more inventory or lower rates. But how many people are neutral about whether and when they move or not? Not many. To figure out if it鈥檚 a good time, look at your situation.
4 questions to ask yourself
If you can say 鈥測es鈥 to these questions, then this may be a good time to buy a home.
Are your critical financial needs already covered?
鈥淭hink of financial security as building a pyramid,鈥 says Ken Murray, Executive Director, Financial Planning at 蜜穴视频. 鈥淭he foundation of that pyramid is the things that will keep you safe.鈥
Basic needs you should prioritize include:
- Emergency savings. Have at least six to 24 months of expenses saved up.
- Insurance. At a minimum, you need enough medical, auto (if applicable), disability and renter鈥檚 insurance. You may also need life insurance and an umbrella policy, depending on your circumstances.
鈥淲hen your foundation is solid, the next level is retirement savings,鈥 says Murray. 鈥淵ou should be steadily increasing the amount you鈥檙e saving, with a goal of getting up to your employer plan maximum.鈥
If the bottom two levels of your pyramid are covered, you鈥檙e ready to move on to the next level, Murray says. It includes the other goals that are personally important to you 鈥 buying a house, saving for college or other dreams.
Can you afford the house you want?
One way to figure out if a house is affordable is to look at the ratio of your payments to your monthly income.听
鈥淵our 鈥榝ront ratio鈥 is your housing cost 鈥 principal, interest, taxes and insurance, plus any HOA fees 鈥 calculated as a percentage of your gross monthly income, and it should be 28% or less,鈥 Murray says.听He adds that if you have good credit, a lender might approve you for a larger loan, but that doesn鈥檛 mean you should agree to it.
Keeping the front ratio low will help ensure you鈥檙e not 鈥榟ouse rich and cash poor鈥 鈥 that you鈥檙e still able to max out your retirement savings and have income available for other priorities.
-Ken Murray, Executive Director, Financial Planning
Of course, if you鈥檙e already a homeowner, you know buying a house isn鈥檛 just about choosing an affordable monthly mortgage payment, either. You鈥檒l need:
- A 20% down payment. You can certainly get a mortgage with less, but we usually don鈥檛 recommend it because you can quickly wind up underwater if your house loses value.听Putting down less than 20% also means you鈥檒l probably need to pay private mortgage insurance.
- Money for closing costs. There are a lot of fees associated with buying a house: loan fees, insurance and tax prepayments, appraisal costs, title search and recording fees and more.听Closing costs average 3%-4% of the home price, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development. And starting in mid 2024, buyers may also have to pay real estate agent commissions or other compensation for the homes they buy (more on that below).
- Excess cash flow for maintenance and repairs. When you go from renting to owning, this can blindside you. Think of all the things your landlord may have dealt with on your behalf in the past: no hot water, a broken dishwasher, a leak in the roof, a mouse infestation, lawn mowing 鈥 these are now all your responsibility, and costs can add up. It鈥檚 generally recommended you set aside at least 1% of your home value annually for maintenance and repairs.
- Room for your payment to grow. You may not realize that in a fixed mortgage, only the principal and interest (the PI in PITI, an acronym often used to refer to the components of mortgage payments) are fixed. Taxes and insurance (the TI) can and will generally go up over time. The good news is that most people see their income increase over time as well.
Are you going to hang around?
Don鈥檛 buy a home if you鈥檙e not planning to stay in it for at least five to seven years. Closing costs (both to buy and sell it later) are expensive, and short-term market dips can make it difficult to move if your house isn鈥檛 worth what you owe on it. It鈥檚 smarter to rent if you suspect you might need to relocate or want to upsize in the next few years, or if you鈥檙e moving to a new area and aren鈥檛 100% sure you鈥檒l like living there.
Do you even want to own a house?
People often think of buying a house as a 鈥渕ust do鈥 financial goal like retirement, or a life milestone like getting married and having kids. But like other milestones, they鈥檙e not requirements. There are valid reasons you might not want to buy a house, like an unwillingness to be locked into place or to spend time and money maintaining a home. Don鈥檛 buy a house without thinking through all the implications.
While owning vs. renting can save you money over the long run, it鈥檚 not strictly a financial decision.
And two things that don鈥檛 matter:
Interest rates
You may be shocked to hear from your financial planner that interest rates don鈥檛 matter much to your decision (assuming you can afford the payments at current rates), but here鈥檚 why.
- They鈥檙e not actually as high as they feel. Mortgage rates started falling in 2008 during the global financial crisis, and they鈥檝e only recently gone back near long-term averages. The 7% rate they鈥檝e been hovering around is pretty moderate. While rates might come down a percentage point or two in the future, sub-4% rates are probably over.
- You can refinance later. Locking in a fixed mortgage at today鈥檚 rates only means the rate can鈥檛 get higher. But you can still lower it later by refinancing if rates drop. (And if interest rates go in the other direction 鈥 which is not out of the question 鈥 you鈥檒l be glad you got today鈥檚 rate.)
Housing prices
Again, while prices are much higher than they were a few years ago, you can set that aside when deciding whether now is the right time for you to buy.
- Most experts agree there鈥檚 not much room for prices to fall significantly, given the ongoing shortage of housing in the U.S. In fact, some think that falling interest rates will push prices even higher by causing buyers to flood the market. (That said, real estate trends are ultimately local and there are differences in regional patterns.)
- Any future market-wide gains or losses will be reflected in your next home purchase. If houses fall in value, your next home will be cheaper. If they go up, your next house will be more expensive.
Buying a house isn鈥檛 about getting a good investment 鈥 you鈥檙e looking for a place to live.
If you do move ahead with buying:
Get a 30-year fixed mortgage
Buying in cash and getting rid of a mortgage may feel like a better financial decision when interest rates are higher, but it ties up assets that you could use to meet other financial goals or deal with unexpected expenses or income loss. Which isn鈥檛 necessary 鈥 you can live in the house and benefit from any value increases with a mortgage just the same as you could if you owned the house outright.
鈥淭he money decisions you make with your house aren鈥檛 a one-off,鈥 says Murray. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e part of your overall financial plan and strategies. Getting a mortgage gives you additional liquidity and safety that鈥檚 usually worth the (tax-deductible) interest you pay, and we generally believe that you should take full advantage of it.鈥
Beware of adjustable-rate mortgages. You鈥檙e taking a risk that you鈥檒l either be able to refinance or sell when the rate resets, but nobody knows the future. If you do go with an ARM, choose one that resets several years after you plan to sell the house, just in case, and talk to your financial planner about whether the risk is worth the lower initial rate.
Don鈥檛 buy points
Don鈥檛 buy points when interest rates are higher and expected to drop. You may end up refinancing after a few years to a lower rate, and the money you used to pay for the points will be gone.
Find the right representation
In the past, in many states, real estate agents legally represented the seller by default. To have someone representing your best interests instead of the seller鈥檚, you鈥檇 have to sign a specific agreement with that agent (they鈥檇 typically still be paid by the seller, though).
However, a lawsuit settlement with the National Association of Realtors earlier this year has called that model into question. If the settlement is approved as expected, homebuyers may have to pay the agents they hire themselves beginning this summer.
As a buyer responsible for paying your agent, remember that you can shop around, negotiate compensation and consider asking the seller to cover your agent鈥檚 fee.
At this point, it鈥檚 unclear what other changes may be coming to the real estate industry as a result of the settlement (as well as lawsuits that are still pending and a Department of Justice investigation). So, make sure to ask whose interests your agent is representing and how they鈥檒l be paid, and read documents carefully before you sign.
We鈥檙e here to help you decide
Let your planner know if you鈥檙e thinking of buying or selling a home. We can help you understand how it affects your overall financial picture and give you personalized guidance for your situation.
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